Travel in 2040 – What Will the Future of Tourism Look Like
The tourism industry is resilient and adapts to challenges, with the desire to explore and discover new cultures remaining strong. New research predicts a 60% growth in international travelers by 2040, representing nearly 2.4 billion trips.
New Trends in Source Markets
By 2040, India, China, and the USA will be among the fastest-growing markets:
- Brands seeking to succeed in these growing markets must establish strong brand recognition now.
- The number of Indian tourists will increase 5-fold, primarily due to greater passport accessibility and simplified visa procedures.
- American tourists already generate 10% of total demand for European travel and represent 40% of all non-European visitors to Europe.
| Country | 2019 departures (millions) | 2040 departures (millions) |
|---|
| China | 154,6 | 310 |
| USA | 99,7 | 260 |
| Germany | 99,5 | 140 |
| United Kingdom | 91,0 | 145 |
| Russia | 45,3 | 60 |
| Italy | 34,7 | 40 |
| France | 30,4 | 45 |
| Ukraine | 28,9 | 35 |
| South Korea | 28,7 | 60 |
| India | 26,7 | 145 |
| Canada | 26,6 | – |
| Romania | 22,7 | – |
| Netherlands | 22,0 | – |
| Japan | 20,1 | – |
| Spain | 19,8 | – |
| Pakistan | – | 35 |
| Brazil | – | 35 |
| Saudi Arabia | – | 35 |
| Indonesia | – | 35 |
| Mexico | – | 35 |
Source: Google/Deloitte, Global, NextGen travelers and destinations, 2024.
Diversity of Destinations and New Tourism Hotspots
Tourism flows are changing not only in terms of source countries but also in terms of target destinations. Key changes by 2040:
- Spain will overtake France as the most visited country in the world.
- Mexico will enter the top 5 destinations.
- The Middle East will experience the largest growth in tourist arrivals, primarily due to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are investing in infrastructure and luxury tourism.
| Country | 2019 arrivals (millions) | 2040 arrivals (millions) |
|---|
| France | 90,9 | 105 |
| Spain | 83,5 | 110 |
| USA | 79,4 | 100 |
| China | 65,7 | 90 |
| Italy | 64,5 | 90 |
| Mexico | 45,0 | 90 |
| Turkey | 51,2 | 85 |
| Thailand | 39,9 | 75 |
| Saudi Arabia | – | 80 |
| Germany | 39,6 | 65 |
| United Kingdom | 39,4 | 60 |
| Japan | 31,9 | 50 |
| Malaysia | 26,1 | 50 |
| Indonesia | – | 40 |
| United Arab Emirates | – | 40 |
| Austria | 31,9 | – |
| Greece | 31,3 | – |
| Russia | 24,4 | – |
Source: Google/Deloitte, Global, NextGen travellers and destinations, 2024.
Future Tourists: Informed, Adventurous, and Older
Two main groups of tourists are emerging:
- New tourists (from India, China) will initially visit nearby destinations, and later Europe as well.
- Experienced tourists from Western countries will seek lesser-known and more authentic destinations.
Additionally, due to population aging, the number of older tourists will increase, requiring tailored services.
What Does This Mean for Tourism Brands?
- Content localization will be necessary (e.g., in India, where most residents use local languages for search and bookings).
- Brands must build recognition in growing markets to be already known when tourists begin traveling.
- Service personalization will be key – tourists expect unique and tailored experiences.
Conclusion
By 2040, tourism will undergo major changes, with diversity of source markets, development of new destinations, and digitalization of services being of key importance. Companies that adapt to these trends will benefit most from the growing market, which will reach 2.4 billion trips by 2040.
